Why Sebastian Fundora Is Favored to Break Down Ermal Hadribeaj in the Late Rounds
WBC Super-Welterweight Title Fight
I find Sebastian Fundora almost impossible to ignore because there simply aren't many junior middleweights built like him, and now I’m looking ahead to his scheduled WBC super-welterweight title defense against unbeaten Ermal Hadribeaj on October 17, 2026. I have Fundora entering with a reported record of 24-1-1 with 16 knockouts, while Hadribeaj is 23-0-1 with eight stoppages, and although both men are southpaws, I can’t get past the physical difference between them because Fundora stands around 6 feet 5½ inches with an 80-inch reach while Hadribeaj is closer to 5 feet 10 inches.
Fundora’s Size Is Only Part of the Story
I could easily look at the height and reach and predict that Fundora will simply box from the outside all night, but from what I’ve seen, he doesn't always fight like a tall boxer. I see Fundora crowding opponents, trading at close range and throwing uppercuts, hooks and body punches in bunches, which makes him dangerous but also gives his opponents chances to hit him. Brian Mendoza proved that in 2023 when he stopped Fundora, so I don’t think Hadribeaj should enter the ring believing the champion cannot be hurt, even though I’ve also watched Fundora rebuild himself at championship level by defeating Tim Tszyu and most recently stopping Keith Thurman in six rounds.
What Hadribeaj Has Going for Him
Hadribeaj earned this opportunity by defeating the previously unbeaten Bakary Samake over 12 rounds in a final eliminator, and that performance showed me that he has patience, conditioning and the discipline to follow a plan for an entire fight. Eight knockouts in 23 victories doesn't make me view him as the bigger puncher here, especially next to Fundora’s 16 stoppages, but I don’t believe knockout percentages explain everything, and I certainly don’t think Hadribeaj’s best chance is to stand in front of Fundora looking for one huge punch.
Hadribeaj needs to attack Fundora’s long body early, punch and pivot instead of backing straight toward the ropes, and counter when Fundora steps inside before getting out of range, because I don’t see him succeeding if he allows this to become one long exchange after another. In my view, Fundora can afford a few messy moments because his pressure and volume add up over time, while Hadribeaj has to remain accurate, disciplined and ready to leave after he lands, which I consider a difficult assignment to repeat for 12 rounds against a much larger fighter.
Recent Form and the Early Rounds
Hadribeaj’s best chance to make this fight interesting may come in the first few rounds, when Fundora is still reading his timing and the challenger’s legs are fresh enough to move after every attack. He should look for the straight left to the body, step around the lead foot and make Fundora reset, and if he can do that without taking unnecessary punishment, I can see him winning some early rounds and making the fight appear closer than many people expect.
Pressure, Stamina and the Difference in Experience
But let's not overlook the fact that Fundora has already been through difficult championship fights and has shown that he can recover from defeat, adjust and keep throwing when the pace becomes uncomfortable. From the fourth round onward, I expect his size to begin dictating where the fight takes place, with the jab helping him close distance before the uppercuts, hooks and body punches start forcing Hadribeaj to defend for longer stretches. Hadribeaj may still land the cleaner single counter, but Fundora is more likely to land the third, fourth and fifth punch that changes the pace of the fight.
Why the Late Rounds Favor Fundora
If Hadribeaj reaches the ninth round after spending long stretches under pressure, this is where I believe the fight becomes very difficult for him, because his legs and countering speed may begin to fade while Fundora will still be throwing punches in combinations. Fundora doesn't necessarily need one spectacular knockout punch to end it; repeated body shots, uppercuts and unanswered punches along the ropes could cause the referee to step in, although Hadribeaj could still make it to the final bell if he clinches well and remains defensively responsible.
Hadribeaj Cannot Be Completely Overlooked
Still, I cannot completely dismiss Hadribeaj’s chances simply because he hasn't faced the same level of opposition. I see value in the fact that he is unbeaten, has already handled one high-pressure 12-round assignment, and should be more familiar with the lead-hand and lead-foot battle because both fighters are southpaws. When I add Fundora’s willingness to trade at close range and expose his chin, I can see a narrow path for Hadribeaj to land a counter that changes the fight, although I also think details such as ring size, inside refereeing and judging could determine whether he gets enough room to box.
Prediction
This is a fight that could be competitive early, and Hadribeaj may land enough clean counters to give Fundora something to think about, but it is difficult for me to pick against the champion because of his size, experience, durability and ability to turn one exchange into a prolonged attack. Quite frankly, the longer the fight lasts, the more I expect Hadribeaj to spend his time reacting instead of setting the pace, and that should eventually allow Fundora to take control.
My pick: Sebastian Fundora by TKO, Round 10.
If it goes the distance, I favor Fundora by a wide unanimous decision.
I give Fundora a 55% chance of winning by knockout or technical knockout and another 30% chance of winning on the scorecards, while Hadribeaj has a 10% chance of taking a decision and a 4% chance of scoring the stoppage, leaving 1% for a draw or technical outcome. Fighter records and scheduling details are current as of September 15, 2026 and may change before fight night.
Key Takeaways
· Distance as Hadribeaj’s main problem: I think he must create space, score and exit before Fundora extends the exchange.
· Fundora can afford imperfect moments: His height, reach and volume should allow the pressure to build over time.
· Hadribeaj’s best opportunity comes early: I want to see him attack the body and counter Fundora’s entries.
· Expect Fundora to take over later: I believe his championship experience and sustained offense will control the middle rounds and lead to a late stoppage.
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